Saturday 9 March 2019

Some Invalid and Irrelevant Criticisms of the Carbon Tax

     An ad opposing Canada's carbon tax came across my Facebook feed the other day, sponsored by the Fraser Institute, and I'm going to unpack it here. This is the original image:


     As you can see, the ad objects to the carbon tax on four criteria: that it's not revenue neutral, that it doesn't replace existing regulations, that it doesn't reduce other harmful taxes, and that it doesn't fund subsidies to alternative energy sources. These are all silly and irrelevant objections, which I'll address in turn. 

Revenue Neutrality

     Whenever there's talk of a new tax or indeed any change to the tax system that isn't a straight up tax cut, the anti-tax crowd likes to insist that it should be "revenue neutral", meaning that it shouldn't change the total amount of revenue collected by the government, as if somehow the government is currently making exactly the right amount of revenue and should avoid disturbing this perfect balance.
     The carbon tax is a new tax on fuels that emit carbon dioxide into the air. The basic idea is that emitting carbon creates what economists call an externality: a cost of an activity that is not reflected on the balance sheet of the person choosing to engage in the activity. Someone else ends up paying the cost. In the case of carbon emissions, someone who chooses to burn a fossil fuel enjoys the benefit of the energy, but the cost (in terms of increased greenhouse effect and the resulting climate change) is borne by everyone, and not equally. In economic terms, the problem with an externality is that it distorts the decision-making process; the agent making the decision doesn't have a full measure of costs and benefits on their balance sheet.
     So the purpose of a carbon tax in this case is to change that calculus by making the price of carbon a little more reflective of the true cost, with the hope that people will shift their purchasing choices accordingly. Just like you might find yourself eating more bread if the price of potatoes goes up.
     What, then, would be the point of making a carbon tax revenue neutral? None, really. If a blight makes potatoes scarcer and thus more expensive, the grocery store does not reduce the price of bread for the sake of revenue neutrality. Potatoes just get more expensive, and so people start buying more bread instead. That's how markets work, and incidentally that's why the carbon tax is generally preferred by economists as a more free-market-friendly approach to the problem.

Replacing Existing Regulations

     There's a certain amount of sense here, if you consider the regulations in question to be straightforward restrictions on how much carbon you're allowed to emit. After all, ideally the increased price of carbon fuels should encourage people to use less simply out of economic self-interest, with no need for minimum fuel-efficiency standards.
     Except that regulations exist for a whole lot of reasons besides simply encouraging fuel efficiency. There are regulations requiring, for example, that diesel and gasoline pumps be clearly marked and identified as such, because you can do a lot of damage putting one in a vehicle designed to use the other. I suppose if you're paying more for fuel you might be extra careful not to waste money buying the wrong kind, but it seems unrealistic to hope that might be enough.
     It's entirely possible, of course, that there are regulations which are indeed rendered unnecessary by a carbon tax, and of course such regulations probably should be repealed. But that's only a valid criticism of the obsolete regulations, not the carbon tax itself. It's not the fault of your new refrigerator that you can't be bothered to take your old one to the dump.

Reducing Other Harmful Taxes

     I feel like this particular complaint is just a sneaky way of counting the first one on revenue neutrality twice, because the only way to make the carbon tax revenue neutral is to reduce other taxes accordingly. But let's pretend it's an independent argument, one that doesn't try to pretend that current revenue levels are ideal.
     Let's agree, for the sake of argument, that other taxes are indeed harmful and should be reduced. (In general, I do not think taxes are such a terrible thing, but I'm sure there are some which really should be cut or even eliminated.) With respect to the carbon tax, though, so what? Why is it the responsibility of the carbon tax to address these other inappropriate taxes? There are all sorts of important and pressing problems that the carbon tax utterly fails to remediate. It doesn't improve literacy scores. It does nothing about electoral reform. It doesn't prevent bank fraud, drunk driving, shark attacks or plagiarism. SO WHAT? Neither does brushing your teeth.
     Want to reduce other harmful taxes? Fine, have at it. But you can do that whether or not there's a carbon tax in place to try to combat climate change. Sheesh.

No Subsidies to Alternative Energy Sources

     Of all the criticisms, this is the one that actually makes the most sense. Yes, it actually would be good if some of the proceeds from the carbon tax went to either subsidize alternative energy sources, or to compensate the people most affected by climate change, the people paying the true cost of the externality. (In fact, the Alberta provincial carbon tax does fund programs aimed at facilitating the transition to other energy sources, but let's pretend it doesn't for the sake of argument.)
     But this is not an argument against having a carbon tax. A carbon tax is a carbon tax; what you spend the revenue on is a separate question. The tax end of the equation works regardless of what you do with the money, because it encourages people to shift their consumption away from fossil fuels by raising the price. Indeed, that in itself is a kind of indirect subsidy of alternative energy sources, because it makes them more price-competitive.

     I can't help but feel there's something a little disingenuous about the Fraser Institute objecting to a carbon tax for failing to offer subsidies to alternative energies. The other three (two) criteria are all consistent with their ideological concerns of reducing taxes and regulation, and it seems to me likely that if someone were to propose, independent of any carbon tax, that we should subsidize wind or solar power, they would object. And they'd object to adding a carbon tax to pay for it, since apparently they think a carbon tax ought to be revenue-neutral.

     It doesn't really seem like they're arguing in good faith.



7 comments:

  1. as if somehow the government is currently making exactly the right amount of revenue and should avoid disturbing this perfect balance.

    Have you tried actually talking to anybody who wants revenue neutrality? Do any of them say, "Gosh, I sure wish we wouldn't disturb the delicate balance of revenue"? This sounds like a strawman, Tom.

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    1. Okay. Can you provide some reasons for why revenue neutrality should be a desirable feature in a carbon tax?

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  2. Well, I can't speak for Canada, but here are a few reasons in America:
    1. Some folks think the government is too large. So any proposal to increase revenue is (defeasibly) suspect: to be desirable, the good (correcting one's purchasing choices) has to outweigh the bad (big government gets bigger). And that means evaluating whether each new tax is worth the corresponding increase in revenue. It's not about a maintaining a "perfect balance," it's about stopping an already undesirable situation from getting worse.
    2. Similarly, others think their own taxes are high enough or too high. Carbon taxes hit consumers especially hard, so—given that you agree there exist taxes that consumers shouldn't be paying—revenue neutral proposals are often designed to give some or all of that money back. It's the "responsibility" of the carbon tax to address this for two reasons: a) it incentivizes finding bad taxes and getting rid of them, which might not otherwise top anyone's list of priorities, and b) politics is compromise, and folks on the other side of the aisle who don't want to give up some of those taxes might budge if they value the carbon tax more.
    3. Tying especially into (2b), some folks want taxes lowered, while others want them raised. If a compromise is going to happen at all, a natural point (and a common one) is at revenue neutrality. Speaking generally, pitching tax cuts as revenue neutral makes them palatable enough to at least a few folks on the left, while pitching new taxes or tax increases as revenue neutral makes them palatable enough to at least a few folks on the right.

    So there you go. But my real point, Tom, was that I shouldn't have to be the one doing this. I mean, when you wrote this post did you really believe revenue neutral folks have no reasons whatsoever for wanting this thing they say they really want? Does that even make sense? How often is that true in real life, much less in major policy debates? Now you did allude to an "anti-tax" crowd and say that the Fraser Institute has "ideological concerns"—okay, why are they anti tax, what are the arguments for that ideology? If you're not engaging with things people actually believe, what's the point of the post?

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    1. This is why I said I thought it a bit disingenuous of the Fraser Institute to make these arguments. They are presented specifically as criticisms of the carbon tax, but they aren't REALLY about the carbon tax; they're general objections to the very idea of government and regulation in principle. If you think government is too big, okay, make that argument. And if you think revenue neutrality is a pragmatic compromise between those who want less government and those who want more, then make that claim openly. But to object to the carbon tax because it doesn't offer this particular feature to a particular political constituency who wants it for reasons unrelated to the specific case of a carbon tax is no more relevant than, say, the SPCA objecting to a carbon tax because it does nothing to protect guinea pigs from inhumane conditions. Just because something might be a bargaining chip an elected representative might want in exchange for supporting a bill in the legislature doesn't make it a relevant feature of the policy itself.

      So no, I do not think these are actually valid reasons for wanting a carbon tax to be carbon neutral, since they really just boil down to reasons for opposing a carbon tax in the first place. The demand for revenue neutrality isn't really a principled position on how carbon taxes ought to work or whether they're necessary; it's just a "Fine, you can have it as long as it doesn't cost me anything."

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    2. This seems to me like a bizarre misreading of what the ad is for. It's aimed, as you say in the first sentence, at Canada's carbon tax bill. Don't you think the particular features of that bill matter to people, and not the Platonic ideal of carbon taxes? Suppose the bill subsidized the senseless killing of guinea pigs: wouldn't an ad informing everything of that—and suggesting implicitly that if they think that's wrong then they should oppose this bill—be pretty successful? And if people, a fraction of whom you presumably* need to convince to support this policy, had a problem with killing guinea pigs, wouldn't a post calling their criticisms invalid and irrelevant because, after all, we could just have a completely different carbon tax bill that doesn't kill guinea pigs, be silly to say the least? Look, I will be the first to agree that carbon taxes seem like a good idea, that they're a lot better than most taxes, and that they don't fall prey to certain generic arguments against taxation. I don't even have a dog in the "revenue neutrality" fight, because I don't think my taxes or anyone else's are too high. Even so, your argument here is just totally weird.

      *I don't know Canadian politics, so I don't know how true this is. But it goes for places in America, anyway.

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    3. P.S. about the "disinguenuous" thing—you have a case there about point 4, the "no subsidies to alternative energy sources" one, but I don't see how you have it for the other three. By your own admission, the Fraser Institute is all about lowering taxes and stuff. And if I understand you right, the bill does raise taxes. So it seems to me that on points 1-3 the Fraser Institute is saying exactly what you'd expect based on their ideology. You can call that a lot of things, but disingenuous is not one of them.

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    4. Well, here's why at least the bit on revenue neutrality looks disingenuous. If they had said, "Carbon tax is bad because it will raise the price of fuel", that would be silly (in the sense that raising the price of fuel is almost the whole point), but it would be consistent with their message. And MAYBE you can say that saying it's not revenue neutral is just a roundabout way of saying it's bad because it'll cost fuel users money, but it's roundabout in a way that seems calculated to make the unsophisticated reader conclude that golly, revenue neutrality must be a good thing, whatever it is.

      I've done some more thinking on this, by the way; see my next blog post.

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